Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ENS prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-22 22.249277 26.190521 31.042272 37.604545 46.501554 58.559509 76.959551
2024-12-29 17.526353 21.990175 28.090953 37.484528 52.547953 77.954257 130.814909
2025-01-05 14.475951 18.788979 25.031243 35.399196 53.896106 90.345156 188.977631
2025-01-12 12.270982 16.265275 22.259212 32.722561 52.821787 97.343218 248.873671
2025-01-19 10.750468 14.481981 20.241643 30.704745 52.081329 104.629914 330.813139
2025-01-26 10.860714 15.143235 22.170327 36.137905 69.229578 176.869404 1283.573819
2025-02-02 10.434642 14.879009 22.474237 38.547482 81.114733 258.217846 8567.293007
2025-02-09 9.480750 13.628393 20.822268 36.407142 79.520841 279.168164 46307.110642
2025-02-16 9.098607 13.293136 20.790370 37.841878 89.675345 400.227945 NaN
2025-02-23 8.580482 12.666602 20.112927 37.601395 94.347832 511.530039 NaN
2025-03-02 8.122987 12.101944 19.479748 37.322025 98.904408 662.797461 NaN
2025-03-09 7.800722 11.747349 19.216232 37.925544 107.692333 989.618218 NaN
2025-03-16 7.290971 11.038355 18.202864 36.472914 107.426518 1200.323711 NaN
2025-03-23 6.942607 10.599729 17.705809 36.355241 113.843765 1875.662275 NaN
2025-03-30 6.482162 9.918801 16.625282 34.362529 109.447028 2043.779107 NaN
2025-04-06 6.016768 9.201708 15.410526 31.800789 100.868931 1825.397391 NaN
2025-04-13 5.636084 8.623594 14.452878 29.866609 95.079270 1768.659629 NaN
2025-04-20 5.809197 9.095296 15.802043 35.068754 136.028837 61452.452356 NaN
2025-04-27 5.750362 9.116173 16.157786 37.370125 164.719259 NaN NaN
2025-05-04 5.439161 8.621940 15.279277 35.326070 155.535740 NaN NaN
2025-05-11 5.343836 8.548930 15.377366 36.696561 179.602338 NaN NaN
2025-05-18 5.168292 8.304458 15.045417 36.466930 188.523265 NaN NaN
2025-05-25 5.002951 8.071225 14.720225 36.200126 197.311386 NaN NaN